Hello, and welcome to week two of my exciting betting column. First of all Iâ€™d like to start with an apology to anyone reading this in the States who is just itching to wazz their hard earned at the nearest online bookies only to find themselves thwarted by the latest gambling regulations. If itâ€™s any consolation, I didnâ€™t do quite so well this week.
So, this weekâ€™s tactics. As stated last week, I went for ten Â£2 bets on correct scores only this time â€“ there were no odds that really jumped out at me so I didnâ€™t bother with any Â£3 punts. I took a more formally mathematical approach based on scoring/conceding averages in recent games to give me a rough idea of what was likely to happen and then applied various factors such as: Wayne Rooney is going to score one of these days, Kevin Nolan is suspended, Aston Villa are over rated, Mark Viduka has a broken toe, etc, etc. As Iâ€™ve yet to come up with a formula that contains such factors I just went round adding or taking a goal away here and there as I saw fit.
The first game went entirely to plan: Sheffield United 0 â€“ 2 Chelsea with the West Londoners cruising to a two goal lead and then just passing the ball about. Easy money. Unfortunately it all went a bit pear shaped then â€“ trend bucking aplenty. Wayne Rooney finally rids himself of the bovine behind/stringed instrument hoodoo whilst Bolton not only start conceding at home but they do it for fun. Liverpool get their act together in the Premiership and Villa scarcely turn up (Iâ€™d predicted a 2-0 home win so I was close). Arsenal louse it up at home, as do Fulham. West Ham actually win a game. And so on.
Come the end of play Sunday Iâ€™d still only netted the one correct score so I was staring down the barrel of a tenner up the Swanee. It all hinged on Stuart Pearceâ€™s Manchester City. Imagine my surprise when I got in on Monday night to discover that, lo and behold, they had actually won 1-0 at home as Iâ€™d predicted. The week was saved: Â£20 staked, Â£25ish returned â€“ so a tidy Â£5 profit. Sweet.
This week Iâ€™ve been looking at the distribution of scores for the season so far â€“ I have a new favourite result now. We shall see how I fare, armed with this knowledge, at the weekend. Same betting tactic as this week, thereâ€™s not enough in the pot to chance Â£3 a match yetâ€¦